A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
